Mongolia Country Profile

Independent Research Institute of Mongolia

Population: 3.4 million

Major Threats: Floods, Wildfires, Storms, Epidemics, Extreme Temperatures, Landslides, Drought, and Earthquakes

Populations Affected: Rural and Urban Communities

Locations Affected: Ulaanbaatar, Darkhan, Selenge, Tuv, Dornod, Sukhbaatar, Khentii, Omnogovi, Khovsgoi, Govisumber

Industries Affected: Information Communication and Technology, Energy, Transportation, Agriculture

Compounding Issues: Livelihoods, Agriculture, Environment, Hygiene and Sanitation, Renewable Energy

World Risk Index Ranking: 148

Global Climate Risk Index: 48 (2021)

Mongolia, a landlocked nation, shares its borders with the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation. The country has a population of 3.4 million, with approximately half residing in the capital city of Ulaanbaatar. Despite a threefold increase in GDP per capita since 1991, Mongolia recorded a poverty rate of 27.8% in 2020 and continues to maintain a lower middle-income classification according to the World Bank. Additionally, Mongolia possesses significant mineral resources including coal, copper, and gold, with nearly 90% of its exports directed towards China. The agricultural sector contributes around 11% to the GDP, while about 40% of the workforce is engaged in nomadic livestock herding across extensive pasturelands. Services constitute 55% of the GDP, while mining accounts for 17% (UNFCCC, 2017).

Mongolia exhibits three primary geographical features: the expansive Mongolian plateau characterized by undulating grasslands (steppes), which covers almost two-thirds of central Mongolia; elevated mountain ranges in the North-East, West, and South-West; and the commanding Gobi Desert dominating the southern third of the country. The country frequently experiences flood events, particularly in the Ulaanbaatar area. The highest risk is concentrated in Ulaanbaatar, with limited exposure in other regions. The most significant flood damage is anticipated at the provincial level in the northern regions, especially in Darkhan-Uul and Selenge. Rivers flowing northeast from the central northern provinces, such as the Selenge River and its tributaries, extend to the Russian border. The Kherlen River, flowing east through southern towns, receives minimal annual precipitation.

Seismic activity in Mongolia is primarily located in the central and western parts of the country, where multiple active fault structures have been identified.

Regarding major threats and the economy, Mongolia experiences an annual average of approximately $24 million in financial losses due to floods and an estimated average annual fatality count (AAF) of 92. This underscores the dominant role of floods in causing economic losses in Mongolia. One of the most notable recorded events is the 1996 Ulaanbaatar flooding, which, if it happened today, could result in nearly $200 million in damages, affecting over 270,000 individuals. The disparity in economic exposure is influenced by precipitation distribution, with higher levels in the northern regions and lower levels in the south, resulting in varying vulnerabilities. This dynamic affects areas like Khuvsgul and Ulaanbaatar, where the annual average financial loss ranges from $2.5 million to $3.5 million. In contrast, regions such as southern Mongolia, with limited annual precipitation, face a concentrated economic exposure of around $200,000. This phenomenon can be attributed to the interplay between precipitation distribution and geographical features. Concerning earthquakes, Mongolia’s yearly average financial loss is estimated at about $0.6 million, with Ulaanbaatar contributing to almost two-thirds of this amount. Due to relatively lower exposure and vulnerability in regions with moderate seismic hazards, the nationwide projection for average annual fatalities stands at around 1.

Historically, Mongolia’s primary economic activities were centered around herding and agriculture, contributing over 12% to the country’s GDP. However, the growth of the mineral industry sector over the past two decades has led to economic expansion in line with demand. Urban migration seeking better job prospects and education has accompanied this growth. While mining product exports have surged and now contribute more than 20% to the GDP, this trend has started to impact the environment, wildlife, and rural livelihoods. Disruption of family income, a primary source of livelihood, has begun to compromise food security. The expansion of mining activities has also led to reduced land availability for both wildlife and communities. This change in land use is not solely attributed to mining, as increased human activities like farming, agriculture, and deforestation have also played a role. Mongolia faces additional challenges, including poor sanitation, limited water access, and a lack of job opportunities. Many rural residents suffer from respiratory conditions due to coal burning within their traditional dome-shaped tents.

Mongolia faces accelerated warming and drying due to the climate crisis, impacting traditional herder lifestyles and driving rural-urban migration. Elevated temperatures, particularly in the south and southwest, increase the risk of heatwaves, droughts, and pronounced seasonal shifts. The harsh Mongolian Dzud phenomenon, characterized by harsh winters following dry summers, is expected to worsen in frequency and severity. More intense rainfall may lead to landslides, flash floods, and erosion. These changes have substantial consequences on livelihoods and health, necessitating global action and local adaptation.

Climate change creates negative feedback loops between livelihoods and health. Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall, and water resource pressures harm agriculture and livestock herding, with Dzud events causing significant livestock losses and market disruptions. Natural disasters, like Dzud, intense rainfall, snowfall, dust storms, and floods, have doubled damage to livelihoods over two decades.

Pasture degradation worsens due to droughts, higher temperatures, and depleted water sources, affecting livestock yields and incomes. Climate change directly impacts human health through events like Dzud, leading to reduced child growth and increased respiratory illnesses from indoor coal burning. Indirectly, it raises the risk of zoonotic and tick-borne diseases, given the close proximity of herders to their livestock.

While undernutrition is not a major issue, micronutrient deficiencies, especially in children, are prevalent. Rural-urban migration due to climate change contributes to urban populations consuming processed, low-quality food, increasing noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Knowledge gaps persist in understanding the impacts of climate change on mental health, sexual and reproductive health, water quality, and pastoralist herder well-being.